DEEPER DIVES: Who’s Really in Control?

Good Morning,

First, as always, thank you for joining.

This week’s edition focuses on TRENDS. 2025 is shaping up to be ULTRA COMPETITIVE and there are a lot of subtle (and not so subtle) signs to be watching. In the articles below, I share a number of things that I’m watching and how I’m taking them in to help my clients shift their business models this year.

Here’s what this issue brings:

• Marketplaces all around the world are building up massive offers in order to attract sellers. Good for them, but bad for service providers. Don’t build a future that has someone else in control. I share the biggest marketplaces on the planet so you know who to watch and see what they are doing.
  

• Exclusivity is the future of gigwork platforms (and eCommerce). While DoorDash and Uber have been playing nice while trying to dominate the labour pool, Uber’s pissed DoorDash is getting more aggressive with customers.

Flywheels Are The Future. Great For Customers, Bad For Service Providers

Earlier this week I shared my thoughts about Walmart’s latest earnings release.

The boring and basic stuff (even though they crushed it) isn’t the real story in my opinion.

The real story is about how Walmart is setting itself up with a massive flywheel.

They’ve been building like this for a while, and are only getting stronger.

Amazon does the same. Always has.

So it might not seem like anything that’s all that newsworthy.

One thing though that people don’t look at enough, is what’s happening outside of the US.

So much of what we are exposed to, comes from or is focused on the US, it’s easy to think that these types of trends are isolated.

They aren’t.

In fact, this type of expansive flywheel is DOMINATING eCommerce across the globe.

Here are the biggest marketplaces on the planet, all of which are support their own fulfillment network or have expanded in to parallel strategic revenue streams:

Global & Cross-Regional

• Amazon – U.S., UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, EU

• Alibaba Group (Tmall, AliExpress) – China, global cross-border

• eBay – Global (incl. UK, EU, U.S.)

• Farfetch (acquired by Coupang) – Global luxury market

Asia

• Coupang – South Korea, Taiwan

• JD.com – China

Latin America

• MercadoLibre – 18 countries (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, etc.)

North America

• Walmart Marketplace – U.S.

Europe

• Allegro – Poland, EU cross-border

• OTTO – Germany, EU-wide

• Bol.com – Netherlands, Belgium

• Kaufland.de – Germany, EU

• Cdiscount – France, EU

• Zalando – EU-wide (fashion-focused)

Key Services

• Fulfillment: Amazon FBA, Coupang FLC, Mercado Envíos, Allegro Smart!, OTTO Logistics.

• Fintech: Mercado Pago, Alibaba’s Alipay.

• Ads: Amazon Ads, Coupang Ads, JD.com’s AI-driven tools.

• Expansion Models: Coupang’s Taiwan push, MercadoLibre’s Mercado Shops, Alibaba’s Cainiao logistics.

Some people will argue that marketplaces of this size are great for service providers.

That all you need are the right integrations and you can tap into all of this volume and activity.

This is true.

But, while you can transact with these marketplaces, you aren’t in control.

In order to drive the user experience across the marketplace, they set the standards and drive consumer expectations.

This means that your business has to conform to their processes. You lose control.

You can build and optimize for those processes, but what happens as they fragment?

Marketplace A expects [Service Profile X] while Marketplace B expects [Service Profile Y].

There is only so much room in your building and capability of your team to optimize for different parameters.

At some point, you will make decisions on where you are going to choose to specialize.

And while this is the right thing to do, it (likely) means that you will need to be able to say no to work that is outside of your optimizations.

You obviously can choose to keep trying to say yes, but someone trying to compete as a generalist versus someone who has intentionally built to service clients in a specialized way rarely leaves you with the right margins.

It may seem like no one is talking about this.

Or that I’m making a big deal of an issue where there isn’t one, but I offer you’re wrong.

For the last 3 months, the biggest area of focus of my work and the clients that have brought me on is to help them create new revenue streams and change their position (or perception) in the market.

The people at the crest of the wave know that the future will be rough if all you continue to do is focus on transactional activity.

I’ve shared for years now the need for logistics service providers to provide more value to their clients.

To move away from this “you focus on sales, we focus on [fulfillment | delivery]”.

These marketplace giants that are increasing their scopes are going to start DOMINATING the transactional space.

They generate billions of dollars in revenue and are investing like crazy in robotics, automation and huge AI/ML systems to drive optimization.

You won’t out KPI Amazon.

You won’t out KPI UPS.

What should you be doing?

• Focus on smaller brands

• Re-evaluate your current pricing and go to market offer

• Create space in your operation to help drive sales (not only cut cost - basic execution isn’t enough)

• Stack parallel opportunities on top of each other

• Offer services or options that can be customized by your brands

• Build a program for social commerce

• For direct 3PL / Delivery partnerships to offer unique options in specific markets

• Build alliances (I hate the word partnerships) that allow you to provide the same service in cities where you don’t have infrastructure or assets

• Get better with your data

• Hold monthly or quarterly business reviews where YOU present to the brands you serve new REVENUE generating opportunities

• Invest in new technology (you will need it sooner or later anyway - stop waiting)

The list can go on (and frankly almost every one of those bullets could be a huge article on its own 😂).

Here’s an offer for all of you since you’re subscribed to the newsletter (and this DEFINITELY won’t be published anywhere else).

I’ll meet with 10 people who want to talk about their business, want to shoot strategy and get my best feedback (if this blows up and I get a ton of requests, I’ll try to free up more time — but I have to have time to work with my existing clients too!)

Free.

No sales.

No expectations.

No commitments (other than showing up on time)

You just get my best stuff from what you share.

Get me directly at → [email protected]

Uber Grew On Exclusivity But Is Unhappy Now That Someone Else Has The Advantage

Uber filed an antitrust lawsuit against DoorDash on February 14, 2025, in California Superior Court.

They are alleging systematic anti-competitive practices in the food delivery market.

Uber claims DoorDash uses its market dominance (62.7% of U.S. delivery market share) to force restaurants into exclusive or near-exclusive agreements for first-party delivery.

Some of the threats that Uber has stated DoorDash is doing:

• 30% commission hikes on third-party orders

• Demoting or removing restaurants from the DoorDash app

• Imposing multimillion-dollar penalties

Uber’s position is that these practices have cost them "millions in revenue" while also limiting restaurants' ability to choose cheaper/faster alternatives.

DoorDash has denied all allegations, calling Uber's lawsuit "meritless".

I agree with them.

The concept of “bundling” or providing discounts based on the book of business a customer has with you is nothing new.

It’s essentially the backbone of eCommerce.

What’s even more hypocritical is that BOTH DoorDash AND Uber now utilize programs that try to create exclusivity with drivers.

These programs both have a foundation of number of orders delivered and acceptance rate.

Uber also creates a system where points are earned based on when you work. You get more points at lunch time and even more at dinner time.

These programs are 100% intended to try to get drivers to choose one platform over another, hoping to quickly get to the top tiered levels in order to be ‘rewarded’ with the highest paying offers more often.

What Uber also seems to be ignoring is that they BUILT THEIR BUSINESS on early rideshare exclusivity and one way advantages.

• Uber launched in Chicago in September 2011 under a "digital dispatch" license meant for taxis, despite not being a taxi company. Competitors like Lyft (which arrived in 2013) lacked equivalent regulatory carve-outs.

• Grandfathered in Uber and Sidecar while delaying Lyft's entry by 4 months due to permit processing (when the rideshare category was first created)

• Uber negotiated an exclusive 90-day pilot at O'Hare Airport (October 2013) for pickup/drop-off rights. Competitors were barred until 2014

• Uber became the first rideshare platform to receive a formal operating permit, granting exclusive pickup rights for 11 months at the San Francisco International Airport

• Uber negotiated a 6-month exclusive contract for Terminal C pickups via a $500K annual "technology partnership" with the Port Authority at the Newark Liberty International Airport

• Uber launched in cities lacking rideshare regulations, entering 23 markets before local governments could draft rules. Example - Houston (2014 launch) operated for 14 months without permits

• Exclusive post-event pickup zones for Uber, with in-arena promotions at the Staples Center

• Uber partnered with 22 Vegas Strip properties (e.g., Wynn, Venetian) for dedicated pickup lanes, free rides for high-roller guests, and blocked Lyft access via hotel security

… you get the point.

They were fine with these things happening when they got the benefits.

But now that DoorDash has a massive market lead on meal delivery, they are complaining about the programs they have to compete against.

Personally this is nothing more than stall tactics and a way for Uber to create awareness and justification for what they will likely look to implement as a countermeasure.

The fact is that these high promise, over invested deliveries need to have something to drive value.

Low cost isn’t an option as there is no level of volume that makes delivering a Happy Meal for $2 make sense.

Who you have on your platform and what they offer is one of the best ways to create a USP for the business and to regain some hope of sustainability.

And as this trend grows around commerce in general, you will start to see it more and more.

Social commerce especially thrives on exclusivity / special access / communities.

And in the same way that free (or low cost) delivery has become mainstream, so too will consumer acceptance of these practices in every area of commerce. Check out this post that highlights even more where this is going.

The next logical question is then - what are you doing to prepare for a world where who you service may dramatically impact the quality of your revenue?

That’s it for this week. Thanks for being here.